ORIGINAL PAPER
Prospects for restoration of Ukrainian energy sector infrastructure in the wake of Russian full-scale invasion
1
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine
2
National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine
Submission date: 2025-10-08
Final revision date: 2025-12-04
Acceptance date: 2025-12-04
Publication date: 2026-09-25
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2026;29(3):29-58
KEYWORDS
power gridsdigital controlelectric load forecastingpower system reconfigurationrenewable energy sources
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The study aimed to substantiate engineering approaches to restoring the infrastructure of the energy sector of Ukraine, which suffered large-scale destruction as a result of the full-scale armed invasion of the Russian Federation. The research methodology included modeling emergency and restoration scenarios in specialized software environments to calculate the modes of electric power systems, analyzing the stability of power grids based on the criterion of unchanged operability of elements in case of failure of one of them, and optimizing the configurations of distribution nodes using mathematical programming methods. The study utilized PowerFactory and ETAP for power-grid modeling, MATLAB for optimization, TensorFlow for load forecasting, and HOMER Grid for hybrid power-system modeling to analyze and optimize Ukraine’s energy infrastructure restoration strategies in response to war-induced damage. The study analyzed the stability of regional power grids based on the criterion of unchanged operability in the case of failure of individual elements. Critical regions with high levels of losses and structural overloads were identified, including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, where more than 100 overloads above 110% and minimum voltages below 0.85 of the nominal level were recorded. The study proposes the introduction of hybrid power systems that provide an autonomous power supply for 14–22 hours. A generalized index assessment of the effectiveness of the reconstruction scenarios (in terms of the full duration of recovery, localization level, current losses, and autonomous support) confirmed the advantage of scenarios combining zonal priority of eastern transits, switching algorithms, and neural network balancing renewable generation.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Perspektywy odbudowy infrastruktury ukraińskiego sektora energetycznego po rosyjskiej inwazji na pełną skalę
sieci elektroenergetyczne, sterowanie cyfrowe, prognozowanie obciążenia elektrycznego, rekonfiguracja systemu elektroenergetycznego, odnawialne źródła energii
Celem badania było uzasadnienie inżynieryjnych metod odbudowy infrastruktury sektora energetycznego Ukrainy, która w dużym wymiarze uległa zniszczeniu w wyniku rosyjskiej inwazji zbrojnej na pełną skalę. Badanie dotyczyło opracowania rozwiązań technologicznych zapewniających stabilną produkcję, przesył i dystrybucję energii elektrycznej w obliczu częściowego zniszczenia mocy wytwórczych, przeciążenia stacji węzłowych oraz zakłóceń w systemach sterowania dyspozytorskiego. Metodologia badań obejmowała modelowanie scenariuszy awaryjnych i odbudowy w specjalistycznych środowiskach programistycznych w celu obliczenia trybów pracy systemów elektroenergetycznych, analizę stabilności sieci elektroenergetycznych w oparciu o kryterium niezmiennej sprawności elementów w przypadku awarii jednego z nich oraz optymalizację konfiguracji węzłów dystrybucyjnych z wykorzystaniem metod programowania matematycznego. W badaniu przeanalizowano stabilność regionalnych sieci elektroenergetycznych w oparciu o kryterium niezmiennej sprawności elementów w przypadku awarii poszczególnych elementów. Zidentyfikowano krytyczne regiony o wysokim poziomie strat i przeciążeń strukturalnych, w tym obwody doniecki, zaporoski i chersoński, gdzie odnotowano ponad 100 przeciążeń powyżej 110% i napięcia minimalne poniżej 0,85 poziomu nominalnego. W badaniu zaproponowano wprowadzenie hybrydowych systemów elektroenergetycznych, zapewniających autonomiczne zasilanie przez 14–22 godziny. Uogólniona ocena wskaźnikowa efektywności scenariuszy odbudowy (pod względem pełnego czasu odbudowy, poziomu lokalizacji, strat prądu, autonomicznego wsparcia) potwierdziła przewagę scenariuszy łączących priorytet strefowy tranzytów wschodnich, algorytmy przełączania i bilansowanie generacji odnawialnej za pomocą sieci neuronowych.
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