ORIGINAL PAPER
Repositioning oil exporters for the Green Energy Transition: the case of Azerbaijan
1
Sustainable development, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan
2
Chairman of the Scientific Seminar, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
3
Evaluation of efficiency sector, the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication(CAERC), Azerbaijan
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2025-04-08
Final revision date: 2025-08-09
Acceptance date: 2025-08-18
Online publication date: 2025-10-27
Corresponding author
Ramil Huseyn
Chairman of the Scientific Seminar, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
Chairman of the Scientific Seminar, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Azerbaijan is currently an exporter of oil and gas, but its goal is to sustain its status as an energy exporter by investing in green energy projects for the future. The aim of this paper is to establish a conceptual framework that explores how Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country, can transform into a green energy exporter. This study compares various green energy export scenarios.
Findings show that (1) transitioning from fossil fuel exports to green energy generally reduces exporter vulnerability and enhances domestic energy security, despite increasing exposure to international market forces; (2) Azerbaijan could increase its green energy exports to comprise as much as 14% of its exports in the coming years; (3) through these green energy initiatives, Azerbaijan can sustain its role as an energy exporter well beyond 2050; (4) the results of the I-O model show that achieving green energy export targets could lead to a 6.7% increase in Azerbaijan’s total output; (5) this shift would also play a crucial role in diversifying the country’s export base and formation of net-zero energy systems; (6) it would allow Europe to diversify its energy supply and reduce its dependence on a single country. By combining two different approaches, Azerbaijan has the potential to transition its exports from oil and gas to green energy, thereby positioning itself as a model for other oil-rich nations pursuing sustainable energy development.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Zmiana pozycji eksporterów ropy naftowej w kontekście przejścia na zieloną energię: przypadek Azerbejdżanu
eksporter zielonej energii, bezpieczeństwo energetyczne, systemy energetyczne o zerowym bilansie energetycznym, energia wiatrowa, energia słoneczna
Azerbejdżan jest obecnie eksporterem ropy naftowej i gazu, ale jego celem jest utrzymanie statusu eksportera energii poprzez inwestowanie w przyszłości w projekty związane z zieloną energią. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest stworzenie koncepcyjnych ram, które pozwolą zbadać, w jaki sposób Azerbejdżan, kraj bogaty w ropę naftową, może przekształcić się w eksportera zielonej energii. W niniejszym badaniu porównano różne scenariusze eksportu zielonej energii.
Wyniki pokazują, że (1) przejście od eksportu paliw kopalnych do zielonej energii ogólnie rzecz biorąc, zmniejsza podatność eksportera na zagrożenia i zwiększa bezpieczeństwo energetyczne kraju, mimo zwiększenia ekspozycji na siły rynku międzynarodowego; (2) Azerbejdżan mógłby zwiększyć eksport zielonej energii do poziomu 14% całkowitego eksportu w nadchodzących latach; (3) dzięki tym inicjatywom w zakresie zielonej energii Azerbejdżan może utrzymać swoją rolę eksportera energii znacznie dłużej niż do 2050 r.; (4) wyniki modelu I-O pokazują, że osiągnięcie celów w zakresie eksportu zielonej energii może doprowadzić do wzrostu całkowitej produkcji Azerbejdżanu o 6,7%; (5) zmiana ta odegrałaby również kluczową rolę w dywersyfikacji bazy eksportowej kraju i tworzeniu systemów energetycznych o zerowym bilansie emisji; (6) pozwoliłoby to Europie zdywersyfikować dostawy energii i zmniejszyć zależność od jednego kraju. Łącząc dwa różne podejścia, Azerbejdżan ma potencjał, aby przekształcić swój eksport z ropy i gazu w zieloną energię, stając się tym samym wzorem dla innych bogatych w ropę krajów, dążących do zrównoważonego rozwoju energetycznego.
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