ORIGINAL PAPER
An evaluation of the potential of the conversion of passenger cars powered by conventional fuels into electric vehicles
1
The Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
2
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Resource Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Poland
Submission date: 2023-07-26
Final revision date: 2023-08-17
Acceptance date: 2023-08-17
Publication date: 2023-09-19
Corresponding author
Dominik Kryzia
The Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
The Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2023;26(3):171-186
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
Fuels and energy marketsEcological, economic, social and legal aspects in energy systemsEffective use of energyEnergy systems modelling
ABSTRACT
The aim of this article is to assess the potential of converting gasoline-powered passenger cars into electric vehicles in Poland. Based on the available literature data, the vehicle structure was classified using the following criteria: vehicle age, engine capacity, car segment, type of fuel used, and curb weight. The average fuel and electric energy consumption values per vehicle before and after conversion were determined using specially developed statistical models. The conversion and operation costs of a conventionally fueled vehicle and an electric vehicle (after conversion) were estimated using a stochastic simulation model employing probability density distributions of vehicle parameters and the Monte Carlo method. Vehicle parameters were estimated to reflect the real structure of passenger cars in Poland. The estimated costs of converting a gasoline-powered vehicle to an electric vehicle (including the purchase and installation of an electric motor and battery) and its subsequent operating costs enabled the assessment of the economic efficiency of the car conversion process. The potential for converting gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles was estimated by comparing the operating costs of the vehicle before and after conversion, taking into account the costs of the conversion itself. The potential of the studied conversion process amounted to 535,000 vehicles, which would generate an annual electricity demand of 1,746.36 GWh with electricity prices of 0.6 PLN/kWh. The conversion is economically viable mainly in passenger cars with a spark engine (more than 90% of cases).
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Ocena potencjału konwersji samochodów osobowych zasilanych paliwami konwencjonalnymi na pojazdy elektryczne
elektromobilność, konwersja, samochody spalinowe, Monte Carlo, efektywność ekonomiczna
Celem artykułu jest ocena potencjału konwersji samochodów osobowych napędzanych silnikiem spalinowym na samochody elektryczne w Polsce. Na podstawie dostępnych danych literaturowych scharakteryzowano strukturę pojazdów za pomocą następujących kryteriów: wiek pojazdu, pojemność silnika, autosegment, rodzaj stosowanego paliwa, masa własna. Średnie zużycie paliwa i energii elektrycznej przez pojazd przed i po konwersji zostało określone na podstawie specjalnie opracowanych modeli statystycznych. Koszty konwersji i eksploatacji pojazdu zasilanego paliwem konwencjonalnym oraz energią elektryczną (po konwersji pojazdu) oszacowano na podstawie stochastycznego modelu symulacyjnego wykorzystującego rozkłady gęstości prawdopodobieństwa parametrów pojazdów oraz metodę Monte Carlo. Parametry pojazdów estymowano tak, aby otrzymany zbiór pojazdów odzwierciedlał rzeczywistą strukturę samochodów osobowych w Polsce. Oszacowane koszty konwersji pojazdu spalinowego na elektryczny (zakup i montaż silnika elektrycznego i baterii akumulatorów) oraz jego późniejszej koszty eksploatacji umożliwiły ocenę efektywności ekonomicznej procesu konwersji samochodu. Potencjał konwersji samochodów spalinowych na elektryczne został oszacowany poprzez porównanie kosztów eksploatacji pojazdu przed konwersją i kosztów eksploatacji pojazdu po konwersji z uwzględnieniem kosztów jej przeprowadzenia. Potencjał badanego procesu konwersji wyniósł 535 tysięcy sztuk pojazdów, co wygeneruje roczne zapotrzebowanie na energię elektryczną na poziomie 1746,36 GWh przy cenie energii elektrycznej na poziomie 0,6 zł/kWh. Konwersja jest ekonomicznie opłacalna głównie w samochodach osobowych z silnikiem iskrowym (ponad 90% przypadków).
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