ORIGINAL PAPER
Development of the US electric car market: macroeconomic determinants and forecasts
1
Department of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Business Administration, Sumy State University, Ukraine
2
Department of Labor Organization, Rationing and Remuneration, PJSC «Cherkasyoblenergo», Ukraine
3
Department of Management and Business Administration, Cherkasy State Technological University, Ukraine
4
Department of Economics and Management, Cherkasy State Technological University, Ukraine
5
Department of Economics, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Poland
Submission date: 2020-09-18
Final revision date: 2020-09-25
Acceptance date: 2020-09-28
Publication date: 2020-09-30
Corresponding author
Olha V. Prokopenko
Department of Economics, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Sokołowska 161, 08-110, Siedlce, Poland
Department of Economics, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Sokołowska 161, 08-110, Siedlce, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2020;23(3):147-164
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
Energy policyFuels and energy marketsRenewable energy sourcesDevelopment of new energy technologiesRegional issues of fuels and energy
ABSTRACT
In the article, mathematical modeling methods are used to study the main trends and macroeconomic determinants of the electric car market development in 2011–2018 on the example of the US. The determinants include economic (GDP), socio-economic (household income), energy (electricity use), and environmental (СО2 emissions) factors. The authors justify the role of electric transport in strengthening national energy security due to the transition to renewable energy technologies and the reduction of fossil fuel use. Based on the constructed linear regression equations, a weak relationship has been revealed between the number of electric vehicles sold and the environmental factor, which can be explained by the small share of electric cars in the US market. The formed multifactor linear model showed a positive impact of both the country’s GDP growth and electricity consumption increase on the number of electric vehicles sold. However, the rise in household incomes negatively influences market development due to insufficient consumer awareness of the electric transport operation benefits, an underdeveloped network of electric vehicle charging stations, etc. Based on the obtained multifactor model, the authors have built optimistic, optimal and pessimistic scenarios for the US electric vehicle market deployment for the next five years. In order to implement the most favorable scenarios, recommendations for market development factors’ management have been made. The results of the study can be used to improve public policy in the US transport and energy sectors, as well as in other countries to optimize the fuel and energy balance, strengthen the energy independence of states by developing clean transport and adapting the model to national specifics.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Rozwój rynku samochodów elektrycznych w USA: uwarunkowania makroekonomiczne i prognozy
polityka rozwoju, elektromobilność, modelowanie sektora transportu, prognoza, rynek
W artykule zastosowano metody modelowania matematycznego do badania głównych trendów i makroekonomicznych uwarunkowań rozwoju rynku samochodów elektrycznych w latach 2011–2018 na przykładzie USA. Determinanty obejmują czynniki ekonomiczne (PKB), społeczno-ekonomiczne (dochody gospodarstw domowych), energetyczne (zużycie energii elektrycznej) i środowiskowe (emisja СО2). Autorzy potwierdzają znaczącą rolę transportu elektrycznego we wzmacnianiu bezpieczeństwa energetycznego kraju ze względu na przejście na technologie energii odnawialnej i ograniczenie zużycia paliw kopalnych. Na podstawie skonstruowanych równań regresji liniowej ujawniono słabą zależność między liczbą sprzedanych pojazdów elektrycznych a czynnikiem środowiskowym, co można wyjaśnić niewielkim udziałem samochodów elektrycznych w rynku amerykańskim. Utworzony wieloczynnikowy model liniowy wykazał pozytywny wpływ zarówno wzrostu PKB kraju, jak i wzrostu zużycia energii elektrycznej na liczbę sprzedawanych pojazdów elektrycznych. Wzrost dochodów gospodarstw domowych negatywnie wpływa na rozwój rynku ze względu na niedostateczną świadomość konsumentów dotyczącą korzyści płynących z eksploatacji transportu elektrycznego, słabo rozwiniętą sieć stacji ładowania pojazdów elektrycznych, itp. Na podstawie uzyskanego modelu wieloczynnikowego autorzy zbudowali scenariusze rozwoju rynku pojazdów elektrycznych w USA na najbliższe pięć lat: optymistyczny, optymalny i pesymistyczny. W celu realizacji najkorzystniejszych scenariuszy sformułowano rekomendacje dotyczące zarządzania czynnikami rozwoju rynku. Wyniki badania mogą zostać wykorzystane do poprawy polityki publicznej w sektorze transportu i energii w USA, a także w innych krajach do optymalizacji bilansu paliwowo-energetycznego, wzmocnienia niezależności energetycznej państw poprzez rozwój czystego transportu poprzez dostosowanie modelu do specyfiki tych krajów.
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