ORIGINAL PAPER
Forecasting solar generation in energy systems to accelerate the implementation of sustainable economic development
1
National University of Water Management and Environmental Engineering, 33028, Rivne city, 11 Soborna St., Ukraine, Ukraine
2
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 54 Volodymyrska Street str., 01030 Kyiv, Ukraine, Ukraine
3
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
4
Etalontechservice LLC, Kharkiv, Ukraine, Jubilee Avenue, 28a, Kharkiv, Ukraine, Ukraine
5
AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland
6
Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University, Mykolaiv, Ukraine, 68 Paratroop-ers Street, 54000 Nikolaev, Ukraine, Ukraine
Submission date: 2021-07-04
Final revision date: 2021-08-06
Acceptance date: 2021-08-08
Publication date: 2021-09-22
Corresponding author
Piotr Olczak
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2021;24(3):5-28
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The analysis and assessment of the development of solar energy were carried out and it was noted that the production of solar electricity in the world has increased by more than 15% over the last year. In 2020 there are more than 37 countries with a total photovoltaic capacity of more than one GW, and the share of solar energy in total world electricity production was 8.15%. In the regional context, the largest production of electricity by solar energy sources is in Asia (at the expense of India and China) and North America (USA). The study assesses the main factors in the development of solar energy from the standpoint of environmental friendliness and stability of the electricity supply. The problem of the utilization of solar station equipment in the EU and the US is considered. According to the IPCC, IEA, Solar Power Europe, forecasting the development of solar energy in the world is considered. It is proved that the main factor in assessing the economic efficiency of solar energy production is a regional feature due to natural and climatic conditions (intensity of solar radiation). The use of solar generation is auxiliary for the operation of modern electrical networks as long as the efficiency of photovoltaic cells increases by at least 60–65%. Marginal costs of solar energy are minimal in those countries where active state support is provided.
The competitiveness of solar energy is relatively low. However, from the standpoint of replacing energy fuel at a cost of USD 10 per 1 Gcal of solar energy saves 10–20 million tons of conventional fuel. Industrial production of solar electricity at modern solar power plants forms a price at the level of USD 250–450 for 1 MWh.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Prognozowanie wytwarzania energii słonecznej w systemach energetycznych w celu przyspieszenia implementacji zrównoważonego rozwoju gospodarczego
energia słoneczna, produkcja i zużycie energii elektrycznej, taryfa „zielona”, utylizacja paneli słonecznych
Przeprowadzono analizę rozwoju energetyki słonecznej w zakresie wzrostu produkcji energii słonecznej na świecie (wzrost w ostatnim roku o ponad 15%). Dane z roku 2020 pokazują, że jest ponad 37 krajów w których łączna moc zainstalowana w fotowoltaice przekracza 1 GW, a udział energii słonecznej w całkowitej światowej produkcji energii elektrycznej wyniósł 8,15%. W kontekście regionalnym największa produkcja energii elektrycznej ze źródeł energii słonecznej występuje w Azji (głównie Chiny i Indie) oraz w Ameryce Północnej (USA). W pracy oceniono główne czynniki rozwoju energetyki słonecznej z punktu widzenia przyjazności dla środowiska i stabilności dostaw energii elektrycznej. Rozważany jest także problem wykorzystania wyposażenia stacji fotowoltaicznych w UE i USA. Z uwzględnieniem IPCC, IEA, Solar Power Europe analizowany jest także aspekt prognozowania rozwoju energetyki słonecznej na świecie. W pracy wykazano, że głównym czynnikiem oceny efektywności ekonomicznej produkcji energii słonecznej jest zróżnicowanie regionalne ze względu na warunki naturalne i klimatyczne (natężenie promieniowania słonecznego). Ponadto wykorzystywanie energii słonecznej ma charakter pomocniczy w pracy nowoczesnych sieci elektrycznych, o ile sprawność ogniw fotowoltaicznych wzrośnie o co najmniej 60–65% (w stosunku do stanu obecnego).
Koszty krańcowe wykorzystania energii słonecznej są minimalne w krajach, w których udzielane jest aktywne wsparcie państwa. Natomiast konkurencyjność energii słonecznej jest stosunkowo niska. Ocenia się że zastępując paliwa energetyczne o koszcie 10 USD za 1 Gcal, dzięki energii słonecznej oszczędza się 10–20 mln ton paliwa konwencjonalnego rocznie. Przemysłowa produkcja energii słonecznej w nowoczesnych elektrowniach słonecznych kształtuje się na poziomie 250–450 USD za 1 MWh.
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