ORIGINAL PAPER
The modeling and forecasting of fuel and energy resources usage in the context of the energy independence of Ukraine
1
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
2
Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
3
Classical Private University, Ukraine
4
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine
Submission date: 2020-12-19
Final revision date: 2021-01-20
Acceptance date: 2021-01-28
Publication date: 2021-03-24
Corresponding author
Uliana Andrusiv
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2021;24(1):29-48
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The article analyzes the structure of energy resources, as a result of which the reasons for their irrational use in the Ukrainian economy are revealed. It has been established that during 2014–2018 there was a decrease in demand for traditional types of fuel and energy resources (FER), except for coal. The components of the process of supply and consumption of fuel and energy resources have been formed and detailed, and an integrated approach to their rational use has been developed, which will reduce the loss of energy resources and increase their efficiency. The author’s approach is used in the form of visualized schemes for organizing the process of the rational use of energy resources, which will contribute to the implementation of an effective energy saving policy of the state, ensuring the competitive advantages of domestic enterprises, increasing their competitiveness, improving the economic and energy security of Ukraine. The expediency of constructing deterministic economic models for providing the Ukrainian economy according to different (adaptive and multiplicative) convolutions was substantiated and proved, on the basis of which a forecast and assessment of the energy independence of the Ukrainian economy until 2035, taking into account fuel and energy resources, was proposed. Based on the calculations, it was established that the state of energy independence of Ukraine is insufficient.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Modelowanie i prognozowanie zużycia paliw i energii w kontekście niezależności energetycznej Ukrainy
niezależność energetyczna, Ukraina, zasoby paliw i energii, model, podejście, prognozowanie
W artykule dokonano analizy struktury zasobów energetycznych, w której wyniku ujawniono przyczyny ich nieracjonalnego wykorzystania w ukraińskiej gospodarce. Ustalono, że w latach 2014–2018 nastąpił spadek zapotrzebowania na tradycyjne rodzaje paliw i surowców energetycznych, z wyjątkiem węgla. Elementy składowe procesu zaopatrzenia i zużycia paliw i surowców energetycznych zostały określone w sposób szczegółowy oraz wypracowano zintegrowane podejście do ich racjonalnego wykorzystania, które ograniczy utratę zasobów energetycznych i zwiększy ich efektywność. Autorskie podejście wykorzystywane jest w postaci poglądowych schematów organizacji procesu racjonalnego wykorzystania surowców energetycznych, co przyczyni się do realizacji skutecznej polityki oszczędzania energii w kraju, zapewniając przewagę konkurencyjną rodzimym przedsiębiorstwom poprzez zwiększenie ich atrakcyjności, poprawę bezpieczeństwa gospodarczego i energetycznego Ukrainy. Uzasadniono i udowodniono celowość konstruowania deterministycznych modeli ekonomicznych ukraińskiej gospodarki według różnych (adaptacyjnych i multiplikatywnych) splotów funkcji, na podstawie których przedstawiono prognozę i ocenę niezależności energetycznej ukraińskiej gospodarki do 2035 roku, z uwzględnieniem paliw i zasobów energetycznych. Na podstawie obliczeń ustalono, że stan niezależności energetycznej Ukrainy jest niewystarczający.
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