ORIGINAL PAPER
Efficiency of use of fuel and energy resources of Ukraine: assessment, simulation and forecasting
1
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
2
Institute of Entrepreneurship and Perspective Technologies of Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine
3
Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil And Gas, Ukraine
4
Sumy National Agrarian University, Ukraine
5
Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University, Ukraine
6
Ivan Franko State Pedagogical University of Drohobytsk, Ukraine
Submission date: 2023-04-26
Final revision date: 2023-07-09
Acceptance date: 2023-07-18
Publication date: 2023-12-19
Corresponding author
Uliana Andrusiv
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
Department of Economics Theory and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ukraine
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2023;26(4):63-80
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
This work focuses on the fact that the realities of today’s Ukrainian economy require not only recovery but also an increase in the volume of production of products produced by energy-intensive enterprises in the industry to the pre-crisis level, which stimulated the following: an increase in the demand for fuel and energy resources (FER); the increase in the cost of imported natural gas and oil, which became an excessive burden for domestic economic entities and the state budget and led to increased dependence on the geopolitical influence of the Russian Federation; the weakening of Ukraine’s position on the global energy market as a transporter of energy resources; increased competition in the global, national and regional markets of FER under the influence of the growth of general demand, etc.
It was confirmed through analysis that the priority of the state policy in the field of the energy security of Ukraine will continue to be the stimulation of the implementation of energy-saving measures and the improvement of the efficiency of the use of FER by attracting all possible incentives at all levels of management. A visualized model is proposed which will make it possible to systematically manage the processes of the effective use of FES; an action algorithm has been developed that will allow solving problems that arise in changing external and internal environments, simplifying the decision-making procedure regarding the effectiveness of the use of FER, and reducing their specific costs.
The assessment and forecasting of the energy efficiency of Ukraine’s economy was conducted using additive and multiplicative convolutions, which made it possible to forecast the energy efficiency index until 2035 in accordance with the adopted energy strategy of the state. It was determined that the strategic directions of increasing energy efficiency and realizing the energy potential of Ukraine remain the technological and structural restructuring of the economy, social infrastructure, and the creation of the economic, managerial and legal mechanisms necessary for the implementation of the state energy efficiency policy.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Efektywność wykorzystania zasobów paliwowych i energetycznych Ukrainy: ocena, symulacja i prognozowanie
zasoby, efektywność energetyczna, model, ocena, gospodarka narodowa
Niniejsza praca koncentruje się na założeniu, że realia dzisiejszej ukraińskiej gospodarki wymagają nie tylko ożywienia, ale także zwiększenia wielkości produkcji wyrobów wytwarzanych przez przedsiębiorstwa energochłonne w przemyśle do poziomu sprzed kryzysu, który stymulowały następujące czynniki: wzrost popytu na paliwa i surowce energetyczne (FER); wzrost kosztów importowanego gazu ziemnego i ropy naftowej, który stał się nadmiernym obciążeniem dla krajowych podmiotów gospodarczych i budżetu państwa oraz doprowadził do zwiększenia zależności od geopolitycznych wpływów Federacji Rosyjskiej; osłabienie pozycji Ukrainy na światowym rynku energetycznym jako przewoźnika surowców energetycznych; wzrost konkurencji na światowych, krajowych i regionalnych rynkach FER pod wpływem wzrostu ogólnego popytu itp.
W wyniku analizy potwierdzono, że priorytetem polityki państwa w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa energetycznego Ukrainy będzie nadal stymulowanie wdrażania środków oszczędzania energii i poprawa efektywności wykorzystania FER poprzez przyciąganie wszelkich możliwych zachęt na wszystkich poziomach zarządzania. Zaproponowano wizualizację modelu, który umożliwi systematyczne zarządzanie procesami efektywnego wykorzystania FES; opracowano algorytm działania, który pozwoli na rozwiązywanie problemów pojawiających się w zmieniających się środowiskach zewnętrznych i wewnętrznych, upraszczając procedurę podejmowania decyzji dotyczących efektywności wykorzystania FER i zmniejszając ich specyficzne koszty.
Ocenę i prognozowanie efektywności energetycznej gospodarki Ukrainy przeprowadzono przy użyciu splotów addytywnych i multiplikatywnych, co umożliwiło prognozowanie wskaźnika efektywności energetycznej do 2035 roku zgodnie z przyjętą strategią energetyczną państwa. Ustalono, że strategicznymi kierunkami zwiększania efektywności energetycznej i realizacji potencjału energetycznego Ukrainy pozostają technologiczna i strukturalna restrukturyzacja gospodarki, infrastruktury społecznej oraz stworzenie mechanizmów ekonomicznych, zarządczych i prawnych niezbędnych do realizacji państwowej polityki efektywności energetycznej.
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