ORIGINAL PAPER
China in the liberal oil market order
1
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Poland
Submission date: 2021-07-12
Final revision date: 2021-09-02
Acceptance date: 2021-09-02
Publication date: 2021-09-22
Corresponding author
Rafał Ulatowski
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28, 00-927, Warszawa, Poland
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28, 00-927, Warszawa, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2021;24(3):103-120
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
In the early 21st century, the USD 64,000 Question has been whether China is actually integrating into the liberal world order. In this paper I concentrate on one segment of that order: the oil market order. I question the argument that in the present century the oil market order has moved away from being “liberal capitalist” towards becoming “state-capitalist” as a consequence of the rise of China and Chinese preferences. I argue that China has neither changed nor has had the power to change the international oil market order. To demonstrate this, I evaluate China’s behavior towards the three pillars of the liberal oil market order. The first pillar is the United States’ role as the underwriter of the global oil supply. The US guarantees oil security mainly through its military presence in the Persian Gulf, the most important region for oil exports. The US also guarantees the security of sea lines of communication. The second pillar is the ownership structure of the oil industry, where state-owned and privately-owned companies coexist. The third pillar is the currency of the oil trade (the US dollar) and its market-driven pricing system. It replaced the system of OPEC-administered prices that existed between 1973 and 1988. Pricing power moved away from OPEC to the so-called “market”. In the period 2000–2020, China did not challenge any of those three pillars. China may be a mercantilist power, but in the first two decades of the 21st century it remained within the liberal oil market order.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Chiny w liberalnym porządku rynku ropy naftowej
Chiny, międzynarodowy porządek rynku ropy naftowej, liberalny porządek międzynarodowy, ropa naftowa
Od początku XXI wieku badacze stosunków międzynarodowych zastanawiają się, czy możliwe jest włączenie się Chin w liberalny porządek międzynarodowy. W tym artykule skoncentruję się na jednym segmencie tego porządku: porządku rynku ropy naftowej. Kwestionuję argument, że w obecnym stuleciu zmienił się on z „liberalnego kapitalizmu” w kierunku „kapitalizmu państwowego”, w wyniku wzrostu znaczenia Chin i chińskich preferencji w tym zakresie. Argumentuję, że Chiny nie zmieniły, ani nie były w stanie zmienić ładu na międzynarodowym rynku ropy. Aby to zademonstrować, analizie poddana została polityka Chin wobec trzech filarów liberalnego porządku rynku ropy naftowej. Pierwszym filarem jest rola Stanów Zjednoczonych jako gwaranta globalnej podaży ropy. Stany Zjednoczone gwarantują bezpieczeństwo naftowe głównie poprzez swoją militarną obecność w Zatoce Perskiej, najważniejszym regionie eksportu ropy, jak również bezpieczeństwo szlaków morskich. Drugim filarem jest struktura własnościowa przemysłu naftowego, gdzie współistnieją przedsiębiorstwa państwowe i prywatne. Trzeci filar to waluta handlu ropą (dolar amerykański) i rynkowy system ustalania cen. Zastąpił on istniejący w latach 1973–1988 system cen administrowanych przez OPEC. OPEC jest tylko jednym z podmiotów wpływających na poziom cen, który ustala rynek. W latach 2000–2020 Chiny nie kwestionowały żadnego z tych trzech filarów. Państwo to prowadzi politykę merkantylistyczną, ale w pierwszych dwóch dekadach XXI wieku funkcjonowało w ramach liberalnego porządku na rynku ropy naftowej.
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