ORIGINAL PAPER
Impact of the energy commodity global prices on the disaggregated inflation: the case of Poland
1
Krakow University of Economics, Poland
2
Department of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Krakow University of Economics, Poland
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2025-01-13
Final revision date: 2025-03-06
Acceptance date: 2025-04-01
Publication date: 2025-06-23
Corresponding author
Justyna Tomala
Department of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Krakow University of Economics, Rakowicka 27, 31-510, Krakow, Poland
Department of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Krakow University of Economics, Rakowicka 27, 31-510, Krakow, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2025;28(2):91-112
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The objective of the article is to estimate the impact of energy commodity prices, particularly oil, coal, and natural gas, on disaggregated inflation in Poland. The empirical part was based on multiple regression models constructed using simple OLS methods, providing short-run analysis. The study focused on inflation in the areas of food, housing, transportation, and core inflation. The study revealed that energy commodity prices have a significant impact on three out of four considered inflation categories, with the nature of this interaction varying across sectors. Coal and natural gas prices had a substantial effect on housing sector inflation (ECPI), while oil prices exerted the most significant influence on transportation sector inflation (TCPI). None of the variables affected inflation in the food area. This type of differentiation underscores the importance of disaggregated inflation analysis. Macroeconomic control variables, such as the output gap, exchange rate, and interest rates, also played a crucial role in the model. A positive output gap increases inflationary pressure, and exchange rates, particularly the real effective exchange rate (REER), can suppress price growth, especially in import-dependent sectors like transportation. Interest rates also had a pronounced impact on inflation, highlighting their role as a monetary policy tool. The study contributes to the development of knowledge on the impact of energy commodity prices, particularly oil, coal, and natural gas, on disaggregated inflation in Poland.
FUNDING
The publication was co-financed/financed from the subsidy granted to the Krakow University of Economics – Project nr 084/EED/2024/POT.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Wpływ globalnych cen surowców energetycznych na zdezagregowany wskaźnik inflacji w Polsce
zdezagregowany wskaźnik inflacji, sektor energetyczny, ceny surowców energetycznych, Polska
Celem artykułu jest oszacowanie wpływu cen surowców energetycznych, w szczególności ropy naftowej, węgla i gazu ziemnego, na zdezagregowany wskaźnik inflacji w Polsce. Część empiryczna została oparta na modelach regresji wielorakiej skonstruowanych przy użyciu prostych metod OLS, zapewniających analizę krótkookresową. Badanie koncentrowało się na inflacji w obszarach żywności, mieszkań, transportu i inflacji bazowej. Badanie wykazało, że ceny surowców energetycznych mają znaczący wpływ na trzy z czterech rozpatrywanych kategorii inflacji, przy czym charakter tej interakcji różni się w zależności od sektora. Ceny węgla i gazu ziemnego miały znaczący wpływ na inflację w sektorze mieszkaniowym (ECPI), podczas gdy ceny ropy naftowej wywarły największy wpływ na inflację w sektorze transportu (TCPI). Żadna ze zmiennych nie wpłynęła na inflację w obszarze żywności. Ten rodzaj zróżnicowania podkreśla znaczenie zdezagregowanej analizy inflacji. Makroekonomiczne zmienne kontrolne, takie jak luka produktowa, kurs walutowy i stopy procentowe, również odegrały kluczową rolę w modelu. Dodatnia luka produktowa zwiększa presję inflacyjną, a kursy walutowe, w szczególności realny efektywny kurs walutowy (REER), mogą tłumić wzrost cen, zwłaszcza w sektorach zależnych od importu, takich jak transport. Stopy procentowe również miały wyraźny wpływ na inflację, podkreślając ich rolę jako narzędzia polityki pieniężnej. Badanie przyczynia się do rozwoju wiedzy na temat wpływu cen surowców energetycznych, w szczególności ropy naftowej, węgla i gazu ziemnego, na zdezagregowany wskaźnik inflacji w Polsce.
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