ORIGINAL PAPER
Quantitatively estimating the impact of the European Green Deal on the clean energy transformation in the European Union with a focus on the breakthrough of the share of renewable energy in the electricity generation sector
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Institute of International Studies, University of Wrocław, Poland
Submission date: 2022-03-29
Final revision date: 2022-05-23
Acceptance date: 2022-05-24
Publication date: 2022-06-30
Corresponding author
Agnieszka Ewa Rządkowska
Institute of International Studies, University of Wrocław, Koszarowa 3, 51-149, Wrocław, Poland
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2022;25(2):45-66
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ABSTRACT
This paper discusses the impact of the European Green Deal policy on the clean energy transformation in the European Union, focusing on the generation of electricity reaching a significant milestone for the EU in 2020 – renewable energy sources for the first time in history surpassing combined fossil fuels in the generation of electrical energy. This achievement, although partially influenced by the exceptional circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic and the electricity demand shock, is primarily an effect of the Clean Energy for all Europeans Package implementing the European Green Deal strategy designed to position the EU as a global leader in the green transformation, leading by example and turning climate challenges into a growth opportunity, and in doing so presenting an optimistic policy perspective for a global transformation towards a 100% renewable energy world, thus supporting mitigation of the global-warming threats by significantly cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. With the immediate effects of the 2018 recast Renewable Energy Directive (2018/2001/EU) and other related clean-energy policies under the umbrella of the European Green Deal, coal and lignite electric generation has fallen in 2020 by as much as 22% (87 TWh) and the nuclear generation has dropped by 11% (79 TWh), with natural gas to a much lesser extent, yet still noting an annual drop of 3%, while renewables grew, surpassing the combined fossil fuels electricity output in the whole of the EU. This is an impressive result confirmed in late 2021 and a hallmark of the European Green Deal initial success, the sustainability of which is yet to be assessed in the coming years, especially in view of the recent international situation of major destabilization. In this context, it should be added that although the newest 2022 Global Energy Review report by the IEA confirmed in 2021, the highest global CO2 emission level in history (following the post-pandemic economic rebound and also due to the gas-price crisis of late 2021 causing gas-to-coal shifts in electricity-mix, which in the EU, resulted in a 7% relative annual emissions increase), Europe’s emission level has remained in a diminishing trend following the European achievements of 2020, with an overall CO2 emissions decrease of 2.4% in comparison with the level of 2019. Most likely, however, the 2021 gas-price crisis was only a mere prelude to a much more robust long-term perturbation that will be expectedly due to the war in Ukraine and the necessary sanctions policy, especially impacting the energy market and probably further hampering the green-transition process jointly with other economic factors.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Ilościowe szacowanie wpływu Europejskiego Zielonego Ładu na transformację energetyczną w Unii Europejskiej ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem przełomu w zakresie udziału energii odnawialnej w sektorze elektroenergetycznym
odnawialne źródła energii, transformacja energetyczna, Europejski Zielony Ład, polityka energetyczna UE, odnawialne źródła energii w sektorze elektroenergetycznym
W artykule omówiono wpływ polityki Europejskiego Zielonego Ładu na transformację energetyczną w Unii Europejskiej, która w 2020 roku osiągnęła historyczny przełom w zakresie produkcji energii elektrycznej – po raz pierwszy odnawialne źródła energii pokonały paliwa kopalne w miksie elektroenergetycznym. Osiągnięcie to, choć częściowo wynikające z okoliczności pandemii COVID-19 i szoku popytowego na energię elektryczną, jest przede wszystkim efektem Pakietu Czystej Energii dla wszystkich Europejczyków wdrażającego strategię Europejskiego Zielonego Ładu, mającą na celu lokowanie Unii Europejskiej jako światowego lidera zielonej transformacji, z ambicjami przekształcenia wyzwań klimatycznych w szansę na wzrost ekonomiczny oraz ustanawiania przykładu dla globalnej transformacji w kierunku neutralności klimatycznej w celu łagodzenia zagrożeń związanych z globalnym ociepleniem poprzez znaczące ograniczenie emisji gazów cieplarnianych. Bezpośrednimi skutkami znowelizowanej w 2018 r. Dyrektywy w sprawie odnawialnych źródeł energii (2018/2001/UE) i innych powiązanych polityk dotyczących czystej energii objętych Europejskim Zielonym Ładem, produkcja energii elektrycznej z węgla kamiennego i brunatnego spadła w 2020 r. aż o 22% (tj. –87 TWh), a produkcja energii jądrowej o 11% (–79 TWh), przy czym w mniejszym stopniu dotyczyło to gazu ziemnego (3%), podczas gdy odnawialne źródła energii dynamicznie rosły, przewyższając łączną produkcję energii elektrycznej z paliw kopalnych w całej UE. Wynik ten wskazuje wstępnie na sukces Europejskiego Zielonego Ładu, jednak trwałość tego rezultatu będzie podlegać weryfikacji w nadchodzących latach, zwłaszcza w świetle niedawnej poważnej destabilizacji sytuacji międzynarodowej, jak również wzrostu emisji w post-pandemicznym odbiciu gospodarczym.
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