The impact of the natural gas price on industrial performance during a hybrid war
 
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Department of Management, International Humanitarian University, Ukraine
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Anatoliy G. Goncharuk   

Department of Management, International Humanitarian University, Fontanska doroga 33, 65009, Odesa, Ukraine
Submission date: 2021-11-26
Final revision date: 2021-12-10
Acceptance date: 2021-12-10
Publication date: 2021-12-29
 
Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 2021;24(4):105–120
 
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
In the contemporary world, natural gas is one of the focuses of hybrid wars and is used as a tool of international economic and political pressure to gain appropriate benefits. The long-term pressure of Russia on Ukraine using a combination of military, political, economic, information and energy tools is one of the most striking cases of applying natural gas as a weapon in a hybrid war. Exploring the case of Ukraine, the authors confirmed the hypothesis about the change in the impact of the prices of natural gas on the performance of its industrial consumers during a hybrid war. The study covered three industrial sectors that are major consumers of natural gas – the metallurgy, chemical and pharmaceutical industries. The data of nine key companies of these industries for the period 2006–2019 were analyzed; this period was divided into two parts – before the hybrid war (2006–2013) and during it (2014–2019). The authors identified the heterogeneity of the influence of natural gas prices on the performance of different industrial enterprises. However, since the onset of the hybrid war, all of them have shown a reducing correlation of natural gas prices with all the analyzed performance indicators – operating profitability, material-output ratio, and labor productivity. The study managed to build reliable regression models that allow defining the prices of natural gas for the chemical industry and metallurgy, above which these industries in Ukraine become unprofitable. The defined critical levels have a practical implication since they can be tools for regulating natural gas prices for various industrial sectors.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Wpływ ceny gazu ziemnego na wyniki przemysłu w czasie wojny hybrydowej
gaz ziemny, zmiana cen, wskaźniki efektywności, wojna hybrydowa, przemysł, Ukraina
We współczesnym świecie gaz ziemny jest jednym z narzędzi używanych w wojach hybrydowych i jest wykorzystywany do wywierania międzynarodowej presji gospodarczej i politycznej w celu uzyskania odpowiednich korzyści. Długotrwała presja Rosji na Ukrainę za pomocą kombinacji narzędzi militarnych, politycznych, ekonomicznych, informacyjnych i energetycznych jest jednym z najbardziej uderzających przypadków zastosowania gazu ziemnego jako broni w wojnie hybrydowej. Badając przypadek Ukrainy, autorzy potwierdzili hipotezę o wpływie zmian cen gazu ziemnego na wyniki jego odbiorców przemysłowych podczas wojny hybrydowej. Badanie objęło trzy sektory przemysłu, które są głównymi konsumentami gazu ziemnego – przemysł metalurgiczny, chemiczny i farmaceutyczny. Przeanalizowano dane dziewięciu kluczowych firm z tych branż za lata 2006–2019; okres ten został podzielony na dwie części – przed wojną hybrydową (2006–2013) i w jej trakcie (2014–2019). Autorzy zidentyfikowali niejednorodność wpływu cen gazu ziemnego na funkcjonowanie różnych przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych. Jednak od początku wojny hybrydowej wszystkie one wykazywały zmniejszającą się korelację cen gazu ziemnego ze wszystkimi analizowanymi wskaźnikami efektywności – rentownością operacyjną, relacją materiałów do produkcji oraz wydajnością pracy. W badaniu udało się zbudować wiarygodne modele regresji, które pozwalają określić ceny gazu ziemnego dla przemysłu chemicznego i hutniczego, powyżej których te branże na Ukrainie stają się nierentowne. Zdefiniowane progi mają praktyczne znaczenie, ponieważ mogą być narzędziami regulacji cen gazu ziemnego dla różnych sektorów przemysłu.
 
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